No, I don’t mean Kate Moss has gone into the predictions game. This is another of those stat-crunching, data heavy, finger in the air exercises, this time from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Showing posts with label Spain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spain. Show all posts
16/05/2010
World Cup 2010 news from the Jamaica Observer
The World Cup can't be far off - because the deluge of over-opinionated articles, not all of which will be written by me, has begun. Step forward Hartley Anderson of the Jamaica Observer.
27/04/2010
World Cup 2010 predictions news
It seems as if everyone is jumping on the World Cup 2010 predictions bandwagon. The latest offering comes from UBS Wealth Management Research, which says Brazil will triumph this year in South Africa.
"Our forecast is based on in-depth quantitative analysis that places great emphasis on a country’s previous performance at World Cup tournaments," which is UBS speak for "we looked at past results and decided to plump for the most successful team in World Cup history."
UBS apparently predicted Italy would win the 2006 World Cup. What isn't known is whether they covered their backs four years ago in this fence sitting manner.
“Germany and defending champions Italy, as multiple world champions, are the two teams alongside record-holders Brazil that are most likely to win the tournament.”
Of course UBS Chief Economist Andreas Hoefert, the architect of this so-called "model", is wise enough to know there is a limit to this forecasting game.
"Successful predictions owe at least as much to luck as to expert knowledge," said Hoefert as he put on a coat made entirely from natural caveats.
One person who could do with a similar garment is Metin Tolan, the University of Dortmund physics professor who recently unveiled his mathematical formula which, he claims, shows Germany will win in South Africa.
Unfortunately for Tolan, he predicted Germany would win in 2006, which doesn't say much for his formula.
It may actually be more instructive to consider Germany as likely finalists rather than the winners. Of seven finals since 1954, Germany has lost five, whereas Brazil has lost only two out of seven finals since 1950.
Neither Hoefert nor Tolan mentions Spain or England. If you feed the word “Spain” into any World Cup model or formula, the answer is the same every time: chokers. England haven’t done much better since you know when. Will 2010 be any different?
"Our forecast is based on in-depth quantitative analysis that places great emphasis on a country’s previous performance at World Cup tournaments," which is UBS speak for "we looked at past results and decided to plump for the most successful team in World Cup history."
UBS apparently predicted Italy would win the 2006 World Cup. What isn't known is whether they covered their backs four years ago in this fence sitting manner.
“Germany and defending champions Italy, as multiple world champions, are the two teams alongside record-holders Brazil that are most likely to win the tournament.”
Of course UBS Chief Economist Andreas Hoefert, the architect of this so-called "model", is wise enough to know there is a limit to this forecasting game.
"Successful predictions owe at least as much to luck as to expert knowledge," said Hoefert as he put on a coat made entirely from natural caveats.
One person who could do with a similar garment is Metin Tolan, the University of Dortmund physics professor who recently unveiled his mathematical formula which, he claims, shows Germany will win in South Africa.
Unfortunately for Tolan, he predicted Germany would win in 2006, which doesn't say much for his formula.
It may actually be more instructive to consider Germany as likely finalists rather than the winners. Of seven finals since 1954, Germany has lost five, whereas Brazil has lost only two out of seven finals since 1950.
Neither Hoefert nor Tolan mentions Spain or England. If you feed the word “Spain” into any World Cup model or formula, the answer is the same every time: chokers. England haven’t done much better since you know when. Will 2010 be any different?
30/03/2010
Capello on Spain and World Cup 2010
England manager Fabio Capello has revealed his admiration of the way Spain play, which other teams he thinks are a danger in South Africa, and which England player has improved more than anyone else this season.
24/03/2010
Rooney, Torres and Messi – can they deliver?
They are probably the three best players in the world right now; Wayne Rooney is in explosive form, Lionel Messi appears unstoppable with the ball at his feet, and an injury-ravaged season hasn’t prevented Fernando Torres from scoring goals when fit. It will be a privilege to see all three in action during the World Cup. The question is: can they deliver?
03/03/2010
Is there anything interesting to say about the midweek international friendlies?
With 28 qualified nations in action last night (Tuesday) or tonight, including eight games between qualifiers and 12 others involving at least one team heading for South Africa, this is a good time to assess the usefulness of international friendlies. Is there really anything interesting to say about this week’s matches?
11/09/2009
England win World Cup tie on penalties shock
That’s right, some England players do know how to take a penalty... at the Homeless World Cup in Italy.
People who are homeless and socially excluded are enjoying a once in a lifetime opportunity to represent their country and change their lives forever.
This annual international football tournament was first held in Graz in 2003. 18 national teams took part. Just six years later and 48 nations have come together for Milan 2009.
The event now supports grass roots football projects in over 60 nations and works with over 25,000 homeless and socially excluded people throughout the year.
Teams from England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland are squaring up against the likes of Argentina, Germany, South Africa and Spain.
They play Street Soccer on courts 22m long by 16m wide. The maximum number of players on a team at any one time is four (three outfield and one goalkeeper). Halves last 14 minutes and winning teams receive three points. Drawn matches are decided by a sudden-death penalty shoot out.
In this year’s tournament England advanced through the Preliminary stage after winning four games and scoring 37 goals in Group D.
Yesterday the Secondary group stage saw England draw 3 – 3 with Rumania before winning a thrilling penalty shoot out. Earlier in the day the team had lost 4 – 2 against Portugal. Matches against Hungary and the Ukraine take place today.
After the Secondary stage, the teams are split into six groups of eight according to their results. England will be hoping to become one of the top eight ranking sides to play for the official Homeless World Cup trophy.
Let’s hope the players involved in a penalty shoot in South Africa can cope just as well.
For more on the Homeless World Cup visit http://www.homelessworldcup.org/
People who are homeless and socially excluded are enjoying a once in a lifetime opportunity to represent their country and change their lives forever.
This annual international football tournament was first held in Graz in 2003. 18 national teams took part. Just six years later and 48 nations have come together for Milan 2009.
The event now supports grass roots football projects in over 60 nations and works with over 25,000 homeless and socially excluded people throughout the year.
Teams from England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland are squaring up against the likes of Argentina, Germany, South Africa and Spain.
They play Street Soccer on courts 22m long by 16m wide. The maximum number of players on a team at any one time is four (three outfield and one goalkeeper). Halves last 14 minutes and winning teams receive three points. Drawn matches are decided by a sudden-death penalty shoot out.
In this year’s tournament England advanced through the Preliminary stage after winning four games and scoring 37 goals in Group D.
Yesterday the Secondary group stage saw England draw 3 – 3 with Rumania before winning a thrilling penalty shoot out. Earlier in the day the team had lost 4 – 2 against Portugal. Matches against Hungary and the Ukraine take place today.
After the Secondary stage, the teams are split into six groups of eight according to their results. England will be hoping to become one of the top eight ranking sides to play for the official Homeless World Cup trophy.
Let’s hope the players involved in a penalty shoot in South Africa can cope just as well.
For more on the Homeless World Cup visit http://www.homelessworldcup.org/
06/09/2009
Maradona admits “I might need more than the Hand of God now”
Argentina have lost 3 – 1 at home to Brazil. The result means their chances of automatic qualification for South Africa 2010 are now in considerable doubt.
By contrast, Brazil have officially qualified, and deservedly so. They will soon be followed by Spain, who battered Belgium 5 – 0 and will probably give Estonia a kicking on Wednesday night.
Elsewhere, there was cause for rejoicing on both sides of the border as Northern Ireland and the Republic secured wins. Both now have a great chance of at least making the play-offs.
In Group 1 Sweden have renewed hope of a place in the finals after a 2 – 1 victory in Hungary.
Switzerland beat Greece and now look in control of Group 2.
France are officially rubbish – unless they beat Serbia this week.
Scotland must avoid defeat against Holland on Wednesday. If they don’t, their best hope is for Norway and Macedonia to draw in Oslo.
As expected, Croatia overcame Belarus. Now they must beat England at Wembley to have any chance of automatic qualification.
Reports that Cameroon brought Roger Miller out of retirement are of course untrue. Whatever the cause, if they repeat yesterday’s 2 – 0 victory over Gabon against the same opposition on Wednesday evening, they’ll be dancing in the streets of Yaounde.
And if the Ivory Coast don't qualify from their group now, we can expect a ridiculous conspiracy theory from Didier Drogba within hours.
The North, Central America and Caribbean group is still up for grabs after wins for the USA, Honduras and Mexico.
That’s the qualification stuff over and done with for now. Now for the important stuff - inventing quotes from Maradona which hark back to this infamous Hand of God goal against England in 1986.
Quizzed by reporters after the loss against Brazil the legendary No. 10 may or may not have said “I might need more than the Hand of God now”.
He may or may not have gone on to say “I haven’t got a clue what I’m doing.”
And finally, there is of course some doubt about whether Maradona actually said “I’m genuinely sorry about that incident. It should never have happened and I probably deserved to be booked or even sent off. Of course the second one was a belter, so I’d prefer to talk about that if you don’t mind.”
Somehow I can’t see that happening...
By contrast, Brazil have officially qualified, and deservedly so. They will soon be followed by Spain, who battered Belgium 5 – 0 and will probably give Estonia a kicking on Wednesday night.
Elsewhere, there was cause for rejoicing on both sides of the border as Northern Ireland and the Republic secured wins. Both now have a great chance of at least making the play-offs.
In Group 1 Sweden have renewed hope of a place in the finals after a 2 – 1 victory in Hungary.
Switzerland beat Greece and now look in control of Group 2.
France are officially rubbish – unless they beat Serbia this week.
Scotland must avoid defeat against Holland on Wednesday. If they don’t, their best hope is for Norway and Macedonia to draw in Oslo.
As expected, Croatia overcame Belarus. Now they must beat England at Wembley to have any chance of automatic qualification.
Reports that Cameroon brought Roger Miller out of retirement are of course untrue. Whatever the cause, if they repeat yesterday’s 2 – 0 victory over Gabon against the same opposition on Wednesday evening, they’ll be dancing in the streets of Yaounde.
And if the Ivory Coast don't qualify from their group now, we can expect a ridiculous conspiracy theory from Didier Drogba within hours.
The North, Central America and Caribbean group is still up for grabs after wins for the USA, Honduras and Mexico.
That’s the qualification stuff over and done with for now. Now for the important stuff - inventing quotes from Maradona which hark back to this infamous Hand of God goal against England in 1986.
Quizzed by reporters after the loss against Brazil the legendary No. 10 may or may not have said “I might need more than the Hand of God now”.
He may or may not have gone on to say “I haven’t got a clue what I’m doing.”
And finally, there is of course some doubt about whether Maradona actually said “I’m genuinely sorry about that incident. It should never have happened and I probably deserved to be booked or even sent off. Of course the second one was a belter, so I’d prefer to talk about that if you don’t mind.”
Somehow I can’t see that happening...
28/08/2009
Spain, Torres and Richard Curtis films
Looking ahead to World Cup qualifiers in September – Part 5
Europe: Group Five
This is another procession, with current European Champions Spain routinely seeing off a collection of minnows over the last twelve months. There is no evidence that this trend is about to end. Bosnia versus Spain in October is the closest this group comes to anything of interest, and only then because it could be the first time a visiting time has brought out pillows, duvets and mugs of hot chocolate, settled down to watch a Richard Curtis film, drifted off to sleep, and still won.
Forthcoming fixtures:
September 5th
Armenia - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Turkey - Estonia
Spain - Belgium
September 9th
Bosnia-Herzegovina - Turkey
Armenia - Belgium
Spain - Estonia
Europe: Group Five
This is another procession, with current European Champions Spain routinely seeing off a collection of minnows over the last twelve months. There is no evidence that this trend is about to end. Bosnia versus Spain in October is the closest this group comes to anything of interest, and only then because it could be the first time a visiting time has brought out pillows, duvets and mugs of hot chocolate, settled down to watch a Richard Curtis film, drifted off to sleep, and still won.
Forthcoming fixtures:
September 5th
Armenia - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Turkey - Estonia
Spain - Belgium
September 9th
Bosnia-Herzegovina - Turkey
Armenia - Belgium
Spain - Estonia
05/08/2009
Early qualifiers for next year Pt 6
South Africa
Urged on by the vuvuzelas, next year’s hosts earned a creditable third place in the Confederations Cup.
In fact, only a late strike from Brazil’s Daniel Alves and an extra time stunner from Xabi Alonso denied Bafana Bafana the glory their enthusiasm and tenacity probably merited.
Of course Alonso publicly belittled the African trumpets, complaining that the noise they generate is hideous.
With this one comment the Basque midfielder almost certainly guaranteed he and his team mates will hear a lot more of them in 2010.
That said, Bafana Bafana will need more than trumpets and a prodigious work rate to make much progress next summer.
Much will rest on the form of Steven Pienaar and a posse of Europe-based players who will probably drag them to the last 16 but no further.
Then the angry bees will swarm around Spain and Alonso, forcing an early exit. After all, this is the World Cup.
Urged on by the vuvuzelas, next year’s hosts earned a creditable third place in the Confederations Cup.
In fact, only a late strike from Brazil’s Daniel Alves and an extra time stunner from Xabi Alonso denied Bafana Bafana the glory their enthusiasm and tenacity probably merited.
Of course Alonso publicly belittled the African trumpets, complaining that the noise they generate is hideous.
With this one comment the Basque midfielder almost certainly guaranteed he and his team mates will hear a lot more of them in 2010.
That said, Bafana Bafana will need more than trumpets and a prodigious work rate to make much progress next summer.
Much will rest on the form of Steven Pienaar and a posse of Europe-based players who will probably drag them to the last 16 but no further.
Then the angry bees will swarm around Spain and Alonso, forcing an early exit. After all, this is the World Cup.
01/07/2009
What have we learned from the Confederations Cup?
Several things, in no particular order:
South Africa can host a major football tournament without a breakdown in law and order.
Brazil and Spain will probably do OK, but the latter need a Plan B when Plan A (pass the opposition to death and Ole! Ole! Ole! your way to a stunning victory) doesn’t work.
Italy’s glut of strikers with two left feet will hamper their attempts to retain the trophy. Either that or they’ll have a major corruption crisis and pull together in time to win it again (see 1982 and 2006).
Both South Africa and the USA have made early bids for ‘plucky outsiders who might cause a few upsets’ status.
Swarms of angry bees will invade every stadium. At least that’s what this sounds like:
http://www.southafrica.info/2010/vuvuzela.htm
And if the Lions tour is any guide, sales of Rorke’s Drift tunics, hats and t-shirts will go through the roof next summer. At least they’ll do better than novelty items referring to the crushing defeat suffered just hours earlier at Isandlwana.
South Africa can host a major football tournament without a breakdown in law and order.
Brazil and Spain will probably do OK, but the latter need a Plan B when Plan A (pass the opposition to death and Ole! Ole! Ole! your way to a stunning victory) doesn’t work.
Italy’s glut of strikers with two left feet will hamper their attempts to retain the trophy. Either that or they’ll have a major corruption crisis and pull together in time to win it again (see 1982 and 2006).
Both South Africa and the USA have made early bids for ‘plucky outsiders who might cause a few upsets’ status.
Swarms of angry bees will invade every stadium. At least that’s what this sounds like:
http://www.southafrica.info/2010/vuvuzela.htm
And if the Lions tour is any guide, sales of Rorke’s Drift tunics, hats and t-shirts will go through the roof next summer. At least they’ll do better than novelty items referring to the crushing defeat suffered just hours earlier at Isandlwana.
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