World Cup survey of fans gets low marks

I’ve just spotted the results of a survey conducted by a company described as “the exclusive Financial Services partner for all FIFA events”. Apparently this global brand thought talking to fans in the United Arab Emirates about the World Cup would be a convincing marketing ploy. Here are some of their findings.

More than one third of UAE football fans polled predict Brazil will be victorious this year. 16% tipped Argentina to take the top spot, with 11% favouring Spain.

A third of UAE football fans believe a Middle East team will win the World Cup in their lifetime.

UAE football fans are also confident that the FIFA World Cup will be hosted by a Middle Eastern country in the next twenty years with 40% believing that this is definitely likely, and 50% viewing it as probable.

The UAE was also tipped to be the most likely Middle Eastern country to host the World Cup according to 74% of respondents.

15% thought that Qatar would play host in the future followed by 7% who predicted that Saudi Arabia would be the first Middle Eastern country to become a host nation.

Finally, “the most memorable moment in FIFA World Cup history”, as voted for by UAE football fans, “was Maradonas (sic) famous game, as voted by 17% of respondents. This was closely followed by the infamous head-butt by Zinedine Zidane (15%) and the 2006 win by Brazil (11%).”

I really don’t know where to start here.

Maradona’s famous game: I presume this is a reference to the 2 – 1 quarter final victory over England. Let’s forget his other performances and concentrate on the infamous stuff, eh? Speaking as a football fan Maradona’s second goal against England was more than “memorable”; it was breathtaking. He went on to set up the decisive goal in the final with an inch-perfect pass. That was memorable. Besides, a “game” isn’t a “moment”.

Zidane’s head-butt: I’m starting to see a pattern here.

The 2006 win by Brazil: I’m lost for words.

So here’s the state of play – if the UAE ever hosts a World Cup, the locals will want it to be packed full of dodgy handballs and physical violence, because that’s all they can remember. The name of the winning team will also need to be written in prominent places so every UAE resident can see it four years later.

“The exclusive Financial Services partner for all FIFA events” will “continue to hold these global rights to all FIFA World Cup events up until 2014”. Let’s hope this gives them enough time to revamp their research department and avoid this kind of schoolboy nonsense.

World Cup 2010 predictions news

It seems as if everyone is jumping on the World Cup 2010 predictions bandwagon. The latest offering comes from UBS Wealth Management Research, which says Brazil will triumph this year in South Africa.

"Our forecast is based on in-depth quantitative analysis that places great emphasis on a country’s previous performance at World Cup tournaments," which is UBS speak for "we looked at past results and decided to plump for the most successful team in World Cup history."

UBS apparently predicted Italy would win the 2006 World Cup. What isn't known is whether they covered their backs four years ago in this fence sitting manner.

“Germany and defending champions Italy, as multiple world champions, are the two teams alongside record-holders Brazil that are most likely to win the tournament.”

Of course UBS Chief Economist Andreas Hoefert, the architect of this so-called "model", is wise enough to know there is a limit to this forecasting game.

"Successful predictions owe at least as much to luck as to expert knowledge," said Hoefert as he put on a coat made entirely from natural caveats.

One person who could do with a similar garment is Metin Tolan, the University of Dortmund physics professor who recently unveiled his mathematical formula which, he claims, shows Germany will win in South Africa.

Unfortunately for Tolan, he predicted Germany would win in 2006, which doesn't say much for his formula.

It may actually be more instructive to consider Germany as likely finalists rather than the winners. Of seven finals since 1954, Germany has lost five, whereas Brazil has lost only two out of seven finals since 1950.

Neither Hoefert nor Tolan mentions Spain or England. If you feed the word “Spain” into any World Cup model or formula, the answer is the same every time: chokers. England haven’t done much better since you know when. Will 2010 be any different?

Obscure football tournaments from the past

The Taca das Nacoes (“Nations' Cup” in Portuguese) was held in 1964 to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of the Brazilian Football Confederation. To my surprise, the hosts and World Cup holders didn’t have everything their own way.

Argentina, Portugal and England joined Brazil for a series of matches held in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in late May and early June.

The tournament was played on a league basis, which meant Argentina had wrapped things up before Brazil played their last game.

Here are the results and scorers:

30th May 1964

Brazil 5 (Rinaldo 2, Pele, Julinho, Roberto Dias) England 1 (Jimmy Greaves)

31st May 1964

Argentina 2 (Alfredo Rojas, Alberto Rendo) Portugal 0

3rd June 1964

Brazil 0 Argentina 3 (Roberto Telch 2, Ermindo Onega)

4th June 1964

England 1 (Roger Hunt) Portugal 1 (Fernando Peres)

6th June 1964

Argentina 1 (Alfredo Rojas) England 0

7th June 1964

Brazil 4 (Jairzinho 2, Pele, Gerson) Portugal 1 (Mario Coluna)

So Argentina won each of their three games, didn’t concede a goal, and overcame a Brazilian side boasting the likes of Pele, Gerson and Jairzinho in its ranks. No mean feat.

What interested me most were the reports from the England games available at http://www.englandfootballonline.com/.

They’ve done an amazing job in bringing together summaries from hundreds of England games and I was captivated by reports of matches at the Taca das Nacoes.

Pele produced a masterclass to drive Brazil on to the 5-1 victory. He set up the first goal, earned two free kicks “while dancing through the England defence juggling the ball like a circus performer”, scored with a long range effort after nutmegging Bobby Moore, and then set a team mate up for the fifth goal.

Roger Hunt scored and both Jimmy Greaves and Johnny Byrne hit the woodwork in an ill-tempered match against Portugal. Each side also had a goal disallowed, with Portuguese protests ending in striker Torres being sent off for taking a swing at the ref.

England’s final game saw the Argentineans, led by skipper Antonio Rattin, play “strolling possession football to frustrate England and to clinch victory in the ‘Little World Cup’ tournament”. According to the report, England returned home believing Argentina would be the toughest team to beat at the 1966 World Cup.

Capello on Spain and World Cup 2010

England manager Fabio Capello has revealed his admiration of the way Spain play, which other teams he thinks are a danger in South Africa, and which England player has improved more than anyone else this season.

The best World Cup semi-final?

As we all look forward to this year’s World Cup there is a natural tendency to glance backwards at the same time to admire the history of the tournament. With the exception of the final itself, the semis are amongst the most eagerly awaited matches. Let’s look at some classic World Cup semi-finals and see if we can choose the best.

Is there anything interesting to say about the midweek international friendlies?

With 28 qualified nations in action last night (Tuesday) or tonight, including eight games between qualifiers and 12 others involving at least one team heading for South Africa, this is a good time to assess the usefulness of international friendlies. Is there really anything interesting to say about this week’s matches?

Costa Rica announces new coach

Rene Simoes is the new national coach of Costa Rica.

The 56-year-old Brazilian takes over from Rodrigo Kenton who was sacked earlier this week after a three-game losing streak put Costa Rica’s World Cup qualifying chances in jeopardy.

Simoes managed Jamaica from 1994 – 2000 and took them to the World Cup in France in 1998.

He also led the Brazil women's national football team to silver medal spot at the 2004 Olympics, and has coached Trinidad and Tobago, the Iran under-23 side, and Portuguese club side Vitoria.

A second brief spell with Jamaica ended in September 2008 after a poor World Cup qualifying campaign.

Simoes became the manager of Fluminense in October 2008. They sacked him in March 2009.

He then became manager of Coritiba but moved on again in August.

It remains to be seen whether his stay with Costa Rica is any more successful.

Xavi eyes World Cup contenders

Barcelona's Xavi has begun the job of highlighting the teams which might threaten Spain in South Africa next summer.

To nobody’s great surprise the 29-year-old has picked out Brazil, Italy and Germany. He also believes England and the Ivory Coast are potential dark horses.

“We have a superb generation of players, we have already qualified for South Africa and also have the experience of playing there,” Xavi told Reuters.

England, says Xavi, “appeared to have found a new swagger and a solid foundation for possible success”.

He also likes Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney, and said a defence including captain John Terry and Rio Ferdinand would be hard to penetrate.

“England were the big absence from Euro 2008 and I expect they are itching to show they can win the World Cup.”

Maradona admits “I might need more than the Hand of God now”

Argentina have lost 3 – 1 at home to Brazil. The result means their chances of automatic qualification for South Africa 2010 are now in considerable doubt.

By contrast, Brazil have officially qualified, and deservedly so. They will soon be followed by Spain, who battered Belgium 5 – 0 and will probably give Estonia a kicking on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, there was cause for rejoicing on both sides of the border as Northern Ireland and the Republic secured wins. Both now have a great chance of at least making the play-offs.

In Group 1 Sweden have renewed hope of a place in the finals after a 2 – 1 victory in Hungary.

Switzerland beat Greece and now look in control of Group 2.

France are officially rubbish – unless they beat Serbia this week.

Scotland must avoid defeat against Holland on Wednesday. If they don’t, their best hope is for Norway and Macedonia to draw in Oslo.

As expected, Croatia overcame Belarus. Now they must beat England at Wembley to have any chance of automatic qualification.

Reports that Cameroon brought Roger Miller out of retirement are of course untrue. Whatever the cause, if they repeat yesterday’s 2 – 0 victory over Gabon against the same opposition on Wednesday evening, they’ll be dancing in the streets of Yaounde.

And if the Ivory Coast don't qualify from their group now, we can expect a ridiculous conspiracy theory from Didier Drogba within hours.

The North, Central America and Caribbean group is still up for grabs after wins for the USA, Honduras and Mexico.

That’s the qualification stuff over and done with for now. Now for the important stuff - inventing quotes from Maradona which hark back to this infamous Hand of God goal against England in 1986.

Quizzed by reporters after the loss against Brazil the legendary No. 10 may or may not have said “I might need more than the Hand of God now”.

He may or may not have gone on to say “I haven’t got a clue what I’m doing.”

And finally, there is of course some doubt about whether Maradona actually said “I’m genuinely sorry about that incident. It should never have happened and I probably deserved to be booked or even sent off. Of course the second one was a belter, so I’d prefer to talk about that if you don’t mind.”

Somehow I can’t see that happening...

Will Cameroon bring Roger Miller out of retirement?

Looking ahead to World Cup qualifiers in September

South America

The top 4 teams qualify for the World Cup. The 5th placed team enters a home-and-away playoff with the 4th placed team from the North, Central America & Caribbean group.

Brazil currently lead the group by one point from Chile (26), Paraguay (24) and Argentina (22).

The real surprises are the Chileans, who have managed to overcome the handicap of ex-Liverpool winger Mark Gonzalez to score 23 goals. We can expect to hear more about the trio which has contributed 13 so far - Alexis Sanchez, Humberto Suazo and Matias Fernandez - next year.

Expect a late surge from Argentina, who’ve been a bit inconsistent so far. They play Brazil and Paraguay in early September, while Chile take on Brazil in the second of their scheduled September games.

Forthcoming fixtures:

September 5th

Argentina - Brazil

Chile - Venezuela

Colombia - Ecuador

Paraguay - Bolivia

Peru - Uruguay


September 8th

Uruguay - Colombia

Venezuela - Peru

Paraguay - Argentina

Bolivia - Ecuador

Brazil - Chile

North, Central America and Caribbean

Three sides qualify directly for South Africa 2010 and the fourth-placed team takes on the fifth-placed finisher in South American qualifying.

This one looked almost done and dusted for Costa Rica until a recent heavy defeat in Honduras put their plans on hold. Now four teams are vying for the three automatic places: Costa Rica (12 pts), Honduras and USA (10) and Mexico (9).

The US has the easiest of the September fixtures, facing El Salvador and Trinidad & Tobago in the space of four days. They should win both.

Costa Rica and Mexico also square up in early September. This and the US – Costa Rica clash in October are the remaining key games.

Forthcoming fixtures:

September 5th

USA - El Salvador

Honduras - Trinidad and Tobago

Costa Rica - Mexico


September 9th

Trinidad and Tobago - USA

El Salvador - Costa Rica

Mexico - Honduras

Africa

One team qualifies from each group.

Ghana and the Ivory Coast are looking good in their respective groups. If the latter beat Burkina Faso in early September they will be six points ahead with two games to play.

Cameroon clearly need to bring Roger Miller out of retirement. They have one point from two games and must now beat Group A leaders Gabon to stand any chance of going through.

Forthcoming fixtures:

September 5th

Group A

Gabon - Cameroon

Togo - Morocco

Group B

Mozambique - Kenya

Group C

Rwanda - Egypt

Group E

Malawi - Guinea

Ivory Coast - Burkina Faso


September 6th

Group B

Nigeria - Tunisia

Group C

Algeria - Zambia

Group D

Ghana - Sudan

Benin - Mali

September 9th

Group A

Cameroon - Gabon

Asian play-off

The winner plays New Zealand in the Asia/Oceania Inter-Continental Play-Off

September 5th

Bahrain - Saudi Arabia in Manama

September 9th

Saudi Arabia - Bahrain in Riyadh

Keep an eye out for the scores and results at World Cup Bafana Bafana 2010 from this Saturday.

News from South America

Brazil have moved to counter the growing threat from Argentina by recalling striker Adriano for next month’s World Cup qualifiers.

The five times winners play away against Argentina and then face Chile at home.

Now recovered from off-field problems that almost caused him to quit football, Adriano has scored 10 goals in 16 games for Flamengo since returning from Italy in April.

Adriano’s return may be a timely move by coach Dunga. The ex-Inter man has form against Argentina, having headed the injury time equaliser in a 2-2 draw in the 2004 Copa America final and scoring twice in the 2005 Confederations Cup final in Brazil's 4-1 victory.

Liverpool midfielder Lucas also returns in place of the injured Kleberson.

Here’s the full squad:

Goalkeepers: Julio Cesar (Inter Milan), Victor (Gremio)

Defenders: Andre Santos (Fenerbahce), Daniel Alves (Barcelona), Maicon (Inter Milan), Filipe (Deportivo La Coruna), Lucio (Inter Milan), Luisao (Benfica), Miranda (Sao Paulo), Juan (AS Roma)

Midfielders: Elano (Galatasaray), Felipe Melo (Juventus), Gilberto Silva (Panathinaikos), Josue (VfL Wolfsburg), Ramires (Benfica), Julio Baptista (AS Roma), Kaka (Real Madrid), Lucas (Liverpool)

Forwards: Luis Fabiano (Sevilla), Nilmar (Villarreal), Robinho (Manchester City), Adriano (Flamengo)

Meanwhile, Argentina and manager Diego Maradona are also making preparations for the clash in Rosario on September 5th.

“I'm only thinking of victory, I'm not considering defeat,” he said, before moving onto dangerous territory for someone who had a gastric band fitted in 2005.

“We're hungrier than Brazil,” insisted Maradona, thereby unintentionally inviting a global blog audience to submit their own jokes. Brazil currently lead the group by one point from Chile (26), Paraguay (24) and Argentina (22).

The best World Cup goals

If it wasn’t for the pointless narcissism and erratic production values I’d petition the government to attach wires to the head of every adult in the UK and feed 24-hour YouTube coverage into their otherwise befuddled heads.

Obviously I can’t do this, so the next best thing to do is mention footy highlights I recently spotted on a blatantly transparent trawl. You may not agree with these choices, but here are some fantastic goals from the history of the world’s greatest sporting tournament:

Del Piero wraps up the semi against Germany with this extra time beauty in 2006. The other one wasn’t bad either.

Bergkampf’s winner against Argentina in 1998. Worth it for the commentary alone.

Owen takes his bow on the world stage.

The second one against England in 1986. The first is criminal, but this is still superb.

Gemmill for Scotland in 1978. I'll never tire seeing the locals lap this one up.

Gerd Muller and the second goal in the 74 final. Class from one of the greatest ever strikers.

Gerson’s screamer from the 1970 final. The last goal was brilliant showboating. This was genius, and looks even better from behind the goal.

1966 and all that. This one put England on the way to the final.

I’m sure I’ve missed a few, but this is all a matter of personal choice. And yes, I will get around to finding footage from earlier tournaments in Chile, Sweden, Switzerland and Brazil. Anyone looking for film from France (1938), Italy (1934) or Uruguay (1930) thinks I have too much time on my hands. Talking of which, here are some people who actually do have too much time on their hands:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uD1LLAbCMw

All hail the marvellous Sean Lock.

What have we learned from the Confederations Cup?

Several things, in no particular order:

South Africa can host a major football tournament without a breakdown in law and order.

Brazil and Spain will probably do OK, but the latter need a Plan B when Plan A (pass the opposition to death and Ole! Ole! Ole! your way to a stunning victory) doesn’t work.

Italy’s glut of strikers with two left feet will hamper their attempts to retain the trophy. Either that or they’ll have a major corruption crisis and pull together in time to win it again (see 1982 and 2006).

Both South Africa and the USA have made early bids for ‘plucky outsiders who might cause a few upsets’ status.

Swarms of angry bees will invade every stadium. At least that’s what this sounds like:

http://www.southafrica.info/2010/vuvuzela.htm

And if the Lions tour is any guide, sales of Rorke’s Drift tunics, hats and t-shirts will go through the roof next summer. At least they’ll do better than novelty items referring to the crushing defeat suffered just hours earlier at Isandlwana.