Model predicts England World Cup victory in South Africa

No, I don’t mean Kate Moss has gone into the predictions game. This is another of those stat-crunching, data heavy, finger in the air exercises, this time from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Two of its London-based analysts in the equity quantitative analysis team say England will repeat its 1966 World Cup triumph in South Africa this year.

In fact they go even further, claiming England will beat Spain in the final in Johannesburg on July 11th.

“Whilst our model points towards Brazil as being the strongest team to take part in the World Cup, our World Cup Wall Chart indicates that thanks to the actual fixtures determined by the schedule, we believe England will be the winner of the 2010 World Cup.”

It’s all a bit unconvincing and light on detail. Fair enough, JPMorgan “used data including bookmakers’ odds, official FIFA world rankings, previous results and the match schedule to predict a winner.” That’s good to hear.

Unfortunately, they also describe the report as “an opportunity to lightheartedly explain quantitative techniques.”

Thanks fellas. This is the point where I’d prefer Kate Moss to step in with her predictions. At least I’d still be awake when she set out who will reach the final and why.


Everton Mike said...

Read this article. The flaw is that the prediction is based on the odds offered by English bookmakers. These guys know that plonkers who put flags on their car will back England whatever stupid odds are put in front of them so shorten the price on England to about 6/1 where as in reality they should be somewhere between 12/1 and 16/1.

Mike Towers said...

I'm just pleased I got this story out before most of the UK press!

Post a Comment